Issue #036: Recession indicators -v- Brands banking on you doom-scrolling your way into debt
PLUS news summaries re: Roblox x Shopify, Pinterest, YouTube & TikTok double-down on in-app shopping experiences
EDITOR’S NOTE <3
Happy Monday! Trying my best to get back on the Monday posting schedule - this means today’s issue will be a bit shorter than usual (but packed with lots of content, condensing my hours of screen-time into a 5 min read for you <3)
👀 WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT FROM THIS WEEKLY NEWSLETTER »
Extra, extra, read all about it! The ScrollSavvy Newsletter features the latest in business, law & the creator economy… pulling back the curtains showing BTS of my business… sharing savvy tips to help you not get screwed… & creating community thru common personal interests.
🎧 PLAYLIST THIS WEEK »
All-time favorites for summer »
💭 MOOD THIS WEEK »
Cold foam iced lattes >
Can’t wait for an east coast summer <3
Summer plans
The anatomy of the best summer day
HEADLINES »
Just the tip… (of the iceberg, get your head out of the gutter)
💸 IN BUSINESS & PARTNERSHIPS »
Roblox… the next e-commerce giant? (TechCrunch)
Roblox announced that creators can now sell physical products inside the game, thanks to a partnership with Shopify.
📜 IN LAW & POLITICS »
TikTok says tariffs are causing a decline in TikTok shop orders (Business Insider)
Is that why I’ve been seeing less TikTok shop links on my FYP?
🤳🏽 IN SOCIAL MEDIA & THE CREATOR ECONOMY »
YouTube announced weekly podcast charts (YouTube)
This makes sense, considering “everyone is watching podcasts on YouTube” according to the Wall Street Journal, as discussed in Issue #029.
YouTube also announced new interactive product links for shoppable ads (TechCrunch)
This feature will launch for CTV (connected TVs) that use the YouTube app. In Issue #32, we already discussed that YouTube has overtaken Disney (& all other media giants in Hollywood) as “the world’s most-watched video platform, bar none.” (Id.) So, it only makes sense that YouTube will want to capture more money from its (many) TV viewers.
Pinterest launches guide to help creators set up product shops on the platform (Pinterest)
It’s no secret that Pinterest is an aspirational platform, where people go to not only scroll for mood board inspo, but also shop via the visual search features. Pinterest knows this better than anyone: as they’ve said in the intro to their guide, “With over half a billion monthly active users coming to the platform to find ideas, it’s where inspiration naturally meets intent. And these are high-value shoppers: weekly Pinterest users spend 40% more on average than non-users and their baskets are 20% larger. For retailers, the opportunity is massive—but only if your products are discoverable. In this guide, we'll walk through how to set up your business to succeed with help from shopping campaigns on Pinterest.” (Id.)
FEATURE »
There are so many “recession indicators” - so why are brands are banking on you to doom-scroll your way into debt?
💭 Intro / Question »
You might have noticed a trend in our headlines section this week. Social media platforms are doubling-down on shopping experiences, betting that the consumer will buy:
YouTube introduces shoppable ads
Roblox launches in-game e-commerce feature
Pinterest promotes guide to help creators add shopping links to their pins
But why now? IN THIS ECONOMY?!
On one hand (IRL) we have people struggling to pay for groceries and rent… & on the other (online), we have a backdrop of people shilling affiliate links.
How can these exist in the same context, within the same timeline? Let’s talk about it.
💭 Part 1 » What is a Recession Indicator?
If you’ve scrolled on TikTok lately, you’ve probably seen videos about “recession indicators.” Back in the day, these “recession indicators” were fun-facts you’d learn in history class & discuss in your sociology papers:
”Did you know that the average hemline length increased during periods leading up to economic downturns?! It’s bc ppl were more conservative, subconsciously.” or
“Did you know that, even during an economic downturn, lipstick sales increase?? It’s bc women still want to splurge on a tiny little thing to make them feel pretty… & in control.”
But in 2025, anything can be a recession indicator:
Lady Gaga back on the charts & Calvin Harris making new music? = Recession indicator.
Lawyers & doctors becoming lifestyle creators?! = Recession indicator.
DIY beauty hacks, press-on nails, balayage or natural hair colors? = Recession indicators.
Everyone is sober? = Recession indicator.
The topic is so popular that people are already “sick” of the recession indicator jokes (side note: as NY-native lawyer for influencers, I consider it part of my job to lurk in the r/NYCinfluencersnark page on Reddit to keep my finger on the pulse when it comes to the court of public opinion, don’t judge). It hits close to home for many people, and when they see influencers or creators joking about the recession while wearing designer clothes on a vacation, it comes off as tone-deaf.
In any event, it’s safe to say that almost everyone is worried about a recession… even privileged influencers. So how can we reconcile the sheer amount of “recession indicators” with a shopping-obsessed culture, focused on finding more ways to buy? Is the true 2025 recession indicator simply… overconsumption & crippling credit card debt?
💭 Part 2 » The Recession Aesthetic
Since 2020, we have seen a rise in what I’d like to call “the recession aesthetic.” Think of it as a mixture between:
the neutral vibes of the clean girl aesthetic (so everything always matches, & you don’t need new clothes bc you have a capsule wardrobe)
the self-sufficient vibes of the trad wife aesthetic (you make your own sourdough & you don’t need to worry about $10 eggs, cuz your chickens provide)
the DIY vibes of the coconut girl aesthetic (with natural hair, no-makeup looks, & homemade eyeliner from activated charcoal, you don’t need to spend $200 at Sephora)
the money-saving vibes of the wellness aesthetic (when you walk 10k steps & stop drinking, you inadvertently save money on Ubers, Pilates classes, & bar tabs)
the up-cycle vibes of the fashion aesthetic (it’s trendy to shop second-hand at vintage stores & have a Poshmark or Depop shop)
The main thing these “aesthetics” have in common? They point to ways you can save money.
We’ve romanticized scarcity & simplicity… but only when it’s “aesthetic” & commoditized by influencers (who, ironically, are selling something to you by the very nature of their job title).
💭 Part 3 » The Spending Splurge & The Debt-To-Influencer Pipeline
And whatever these influencers & brands are selling, people are buying. Despite the common sentiment that “times are tough,” consumer spending is up. People can’t get enough of their TikTok shop, Temu, Shein & Amazon “luxury” purchases (ie. things that aren’t necessities).
What’s driving the splurge? The BNPL (buy now, pay later) platforms, like Klarna and Afterpay, are also surging:
According to Fortune, ~30 MILLION Gen Z shoppers are opting for BNPL at checkout instead of using traditional credit cards. Yet, ~40% of people are behind on their payments (according to this report by Bloomberg from last year).
This tracks - no matter where you look online, you are faced with content of seemingly perfect lives (as least in terms of materialism… like, I never knew I needed this, but my life would be that much more perfect if I had it).
In that vein, ppl want the lucrative lifestyles that influencers boast online via their content.
More than 57% of Gen Z & 41% of older generations want to become influencers… presumably because they either 1) think they’ll make more money, to buy more cool sh*t or 2) envy those who get sent free sh*t & get invited on free trips…. (guilty).
We are, undeniably, driven by our capitalistic goals to buy more & have more.
The kicker? Most people who pursue this lifestyle are not making money from these videos showcasing their “wealth” - nearly 50% of all content creators make less than $15k per year. (Id.)
Some influencers are putting themselves into debt (buying things for “hauls” or consumption-based content) with the hopes of one day earning a ROI by gaining a lot of followers & becoming a high-paid creator. (Remember the famous “Target haul influencer” who got caught stealing?)
💭 Part 4 » Why Are Brands Doubling Down?
During a recession, brands don’t pull back - they pivot.
And the people always pay:
Sh*tty job market? >> Brands think: People are spending more time on YouTube, either educating or entertaining themselves (so let’s put more ads on their TVs, & make it easier to impulse-buy when they’re feeling sh*tty about themselves).
Tariffs coming? >> Brands think: People will buy NOW, so let’s push out more TikTok shop content (scarcity is the sales strategy).
Traditional advertising getting pricey? >> Brands think: Let’s get a bunch of UGC for our product & gift to influencers to make it seem cool… then girls who also wannabe rich influencers will fight to buy that $120 sweatshirt & limited-edition lip gloss (even if they have 20 other lip glosses & $30 to their name).
People can barely afford the necessities? >> Brands think: Let’s sell them cheap plastic / polyester (aka petroleum) products to make them feel good about themselves, like they are rich by owning more things).
💭 Conclusion »
It makes sense that brands will double-down on shopping, even when allll the signs point to “recession indicators.”
When platforms make it easier to shop while you’re scrolling to escape reality, they decrease the friction - AKA, the time it takes you to go from thinking “ugh, I wish my life looked more like theirs” to pressing “buy now, pay later” for a product that gives piece of their life.
But at what cost? Don’t doom-scroll your way into debt <3
GOSSIP COLUMN <3
… AKA personal updates. Sit down with your favorite morning cup cuz I’ve got some tea ☕️
Busy working on things BTS. Sure, marketing & sales strategies work but… the real game-changer for profit in your business? Maximizing the value of what you sell & making it the best on the market.
I’m back in my content creation era (well, not yet). But this video really inspired me.
Skip competed in the Festival del Viento here in Bucerias last weekend & came in 2nd in wing foiling (& if you don’t know wtf that is, neither did I until I met him). I just watched from the beach with Effie & tried not to get blasted away by the wind & sand.
OBITUARY »
We are no longer tolerating:
Wind: sorry Skip, I’m staying inside.
Traffic: I missed my cycling class this morning bc of construction :(
Effie’s baby teeth: they are falling out! :)
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PS… Got an opportunity you want to share? An event coming up? Looking to hire someone? Send a description & if it’s a fit for my audience, I will post it here in the classifieds section.
Work with me! I help businesses, agencies & influencers, big (fractional “in-house” counsel to take the load of legal work off your team’s plate // corporate chats // custom contracts) or small (“quick question” calls // contract support // guest speaking opportunities). Send an email to nina@thecontractguru.com to work together.
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Agency clients who need in-house support (I can help negotiate a certain # of contracts per quarter, draft / revise / handle communications, send letters for non-payment etc.)
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BRAIN FOREPLAY »
🍳 WEEKLY WORD SCRAMBLE »
YOONCME
UROMCNSE
VTRONCE
DRTCOUP
Last week’s answers: Acting, Filming, Hollywood, Agent… Theme = Hollywood
THAT’S IT FOR THIS WEEK <3 THANK YOU FOR READING!
See you next week!
xx Nina
Sorry if you read this via e-mail and saw last week's headlines! I updated it here. I'm working without a mouse pad so my copy/paste highlight selection was all messed up 🫠